国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Indonesian statements cause repeated disturbances to sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices [2][4] - Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Supply disruptions lead to a strong - biased oscillation [2][9] - Industrial silicon: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot transaction price [2][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 141,360 yuan, down 960 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,345 yuan, up 40 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 695,146 lots, a decrease of 254,226 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 384,740 lots, an increase of 9,412 lots [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China has implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities; the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target; some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 160,500 yuan, up 13,240 yuan; the trading volume was 451,074 lots, an increase of 121,948 lots; the open interest was 415,351 lots, an increase of 4,020 lots. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 152,500 yuan, up 1,500 yuan [11] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 2434 yuan/ton; in December, lithium spodumene imports increased, and lithium carbonate imports increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [12][13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,745 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the trading volume was 338,306 lots, a decrease of 52,808 lots; the open interest was 224,552 lots, a decrease of 10,615 lots. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,700 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan [14] - Macro and Industry News: GCL Group signed a cooperation agreement with Egypt's Kemit Company to invest $500 million to build a 5 - gigawatt photovoltaic industrial cluster [14][16] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [16]