宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-21-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. - The weakening of geopolitical factors will cause methanol to oscillate weakly. Although the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight rebound in futures prices, there is significant resistance to further upward movement. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - Time cycle definition: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For methanol 2605, short - term: oscillating, medium - term: oscillating, intraday: weak, reference view: weakly operating, core logic: weakening of geopolitical factors leading to oscillating and weakening [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Industry Sector - Intraday view: weak, medium - term view: oscillating, reference view: weakly operating [5]. - Core logic: The "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the festival provided the strongest support, which was the most crucial factor driving up methanol prices recently. Iran, the main source of imports, is currently experiencing serious supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the reduction of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to the recovery of port spot prices and a strengthening basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. With the signal from US President Trump that the strike on Iran might be postponed, geopolitical risks have weakened. Although the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight rebound, there is significant resistance to further upward movement [5].