格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures' main contracts generally rose, while the stock market pulled back. Due to factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, fiscal and monetary policies, and international market uncertainties, treasury bond futures may fluctuate with a slight bullish trend in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and rose unilaterally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.52%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.05%. [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A index opened slightly higher, declined in the morning to reach the day's low, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing down 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 2.80 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous day's 2.73 trillion yuan. [3] 3.2 Important Information - Open Market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan. The latest LPR announced on Tuesday remained stable for the eighth consecutive month. [1] - Funding Market: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market rose. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.37%, compared with 1.32% in the previous trading day; DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.50%, compared with 1.48% in the previous trading day. [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond declined 1.23 basis points to 1.39%, the 5 - year declined 0.74 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year declined 0.67 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year declined 0.66 basis points to 2.34%. [1] - Fiscal Policy: In 2025, the Ministry of Finance allocated ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support about 8,400 projects, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan, supporting a 11.8% year - on - year increase in equipment and instrument purchases and investment, and boosting overall investment by 1.8 percentage points. In 2025, China's fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year; the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. [1] - Policy Documents: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued five consecutive documents on consumer loans, private investment, etc. Multiple departments jointly implemented or optimized loan interest subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, service providers, equipment updates, and personal consumption, as well as a special guarantee plan for private investment. [1][2] - National Development and Reform Commission's Announcement: On January 20, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will research and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, study the establishment of a national - level merger and acquisition fund, strengthen government investment and fund layout planning, and take other measures. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while export growth and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The service production index in December increased 0.8 percentage points year - on - year compared with November. [3] - In December last year and the first ten - day period of January this year, domestic real estate sales and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year. [3] - The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the rediscount rate and relending rate starting from January 19, 2026, and indicated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The Ministry of Finance stated on January 20 that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels. [1][3] - Recently, the ongoing disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, the shadow of the EU - US trade war, and the Japanese bond storm have dampened global investors' risk appetite, leading to a decline in overnight US stocks and the US dollar index. [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [4]