Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend short, oscillating short, oscillating, oscillating long, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, they are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5][9] - Macroeconomic policies in 2026 focus on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and expanding domestic demand. Fiscal deficits, debt, and expenditures will remain at necessary levels [11][12] - Different sectors of the futures market, such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical, show different trends and investment opportunities [15][19][25][34][45] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Quantitative Analysis - Fundamental Analysis: Futures varieties like coke, coking coal, and CSI 1000 index futures are in a trend short or oscillating short state; varieties like lithium carbonate and 30 - year bonds are oscillating; and some varieties have an oscillating long or trend long outlook [5] - Quantitative Analysis: Varieties like silver futures and soybean No. 2 are short - biased; iron ore and asphalt are oscillating; and manganese silicon and methanol are long - biased [9] 2. Macroeconomic News - A series of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand are introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [11] - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns trigger a global bond market sell - off, with significant yield increases in Japanese and US long - term bonds [12] - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remain unchanged in January, marking eight consecutive months of no change since May 2025 [13] 3. Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and consider profit - taking. The A - share market shows a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors, and the stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume [15] - Treasury Bond Futures: Ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to a decline in risk appetite. The yield curve of bonds remains steep, and there is a long - term expectation of monetary policy easing [16] 4. Black Commodities - Steel and Iron Ore: Macro policies have limited short - term impact on demand. Steel is in a de - stocking state, but downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and short - term steel may oscillate, while iron ore is relatively weak [19][20] - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may oscillate and decline in the short term. Coal mine production and downstream procurement need to be monitored. The supply - demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival [21] - Ferroalloys: Silicon iron has a small supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is advisable to hold short positions from previous highs and wait and see [22][23] - Soda Ash and Glass: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity is expected. Glass has复产 expectations, and the supply - demand pattern may improve if production cuts are implemented smoothly [24] 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [26] - Lead: Lead inventories are rising, and prices are falling. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [27] - Lithium Carbonate: Demand is improving, and supply disruptions are emerging. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [30] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should be shorted on rallies. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for policy guidance [31] 6. Agricultural Products - Cotton: There is short - term supply relaxation, but long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended for short - term trading [35] - Sugar: Domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading in the low - price range [37] - Eggs: The pre - holiday egg spot price may weaken. It is recommended to treat the 02 - 03 contracts as oscillating [39] - Apples: The futures price may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints [40] - Corn: The futures price shows large differences. It is recommended for short - term trading or to consider the 5/9 reverse spread [42] - Red Dates: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance in the consumption peak season [43] - Hogs: The market sentiment has peaked, and it is advisable to short near - month contracts on rallies [44] 7. Energy - Chemical - Crude Oil: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support prices, but supply is in surplus. Prices may weaken as the market returns to fundamentals [47] - Fuel Oil: Prices follow crude oil, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors [48] - Plastics: Polyolefins have high supply pressure. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset [49] - Rubber: Affected by falling overseas raw material prices and rising inventories, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [49] - Synthetic Rubber: It may rebound in the short term. Be cautious when chasing the rise [50] - Methanol: The supply - demand situation is improving. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and then consider a long position in the far - month contracts [52] - Caustic Soda: It should be treated with a short - biased mindset due to high production and inventory [53] - Asphalt: Prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and the winter storage is in a stable period [54] - Polyester Industry Chain: The market is strong in the short term, but demand is expected to weaken. Consider the 5 - 9 positive spread for PX and PTA [55] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Short - term prices are supported by high costs and demand, but it is advisable to short lightly in the long term [56] - Paper Pulp: The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to international and macro factors [57] - Logs: The market is expected to be in a weak - balance state and oscillate [58] - Urea: The futures may rebound after a pullback as the market expects stronger demand [59]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20260121
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-21 01:43