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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - Main Logic: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - View: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - Main Logic: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - View: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - Main Logic: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - View: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - Main Logic: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - View: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - Main Logic: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - View: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - Main Logic: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - View: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - Main Logic: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - View: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - Main Logic: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - View: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - Main Logic: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - View: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - Main Logic: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - View: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - Main Logic: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - View: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - Main Logic: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - View: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - Main Logic: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - View: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - Main Logic: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - View: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - View: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - Main Logic: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - Inter - variety Spreads: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - Energy Index: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].