国新国证期货早报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 20, 2026 - Stock Market: A-share market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and ChiNext Index declined 1.79% to 3277.98 points. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8044 trillion yuan, up 72 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 Index adjusted downward, closing at 4718.88, down 15.58 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1675.7, down 60.9. Coking coal weighted index also showed weakness, closing at 1130.5 yuan, down 52.5. Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with general coking profits and a slight decline in daily production. Coking coal production has increased significantly, and terminal inventory has risen substantially [2][3][4]. - Crude Oil - Related (not mentioned directly but related products): - Asphalt: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated downward, with a decline of 0.03%, closing at 3139 yuan. Asphalt production increased, inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not significant. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Affected by the continued decline in spot prices, the price of Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on Tuesday and continued to decline at night. Indian sugar consumption is expected to be around 28.5 million tons or slightly lower [4]. - Rubber: Due to favorable weather in Thailand and Indonesia and a significant increase in imports in December 2025, the price of Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday. It rebounded slightly at night. China's rubber tire exports and natural and synthetic rubber imports increased year - on - year in 2025 [4]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures closed lower on January 20, with the main contract closing at 1053 cents per bushel, down 0.31%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 rose 0.33% to 2736 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal inventory reached a six - month low, but it may recover due to sufficient soybean supply [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price rose slightly within the range on January 20. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, up 1.16% from the previous day. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14620 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots. India's minimum support price for cotton increased by about 8% this year [5]. - Pig: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11550 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm of farmers may accelerate, and the supply of pigs is still high, while the demand for large pigs in the south is weakening [5]. 2.3 Metals - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, closing at 101230, up slightly. The weakening US dollar index provided some support, but the market was cautious due to the approaching Spring Festival. There are expectations of production cuts in the smelting industry, and downstream demand is in the off - season [5]. - Iron Ore: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated downward, with a decline of 1%, closing at 789.5 yuan. Both the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - Steel: On January 20, rb2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to snow and ice on the roads, construction at downstream sites was restricted, and transportation was blocked, leading to weakening terminal demand. Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - Aluminum and Alumina: - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2671 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina production continued to increase, while demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price is under pressure [7]. - Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while demand shows structural differentiation. The price is likely to remain high and fluctuate [7]. 2.4 Others - Log: The main contract of log 2603 fell for two consecutive days. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].