招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading suggestions for each sector [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold Market - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metals rose, with London gold breaking through $4,700 per ounce and London silver reaching $95 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff - related matters is pending, and a hearing on Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook is scheduled. There were fluctuations in the Japanese bond market, the EU may freeze the US - EU trade agreement approval, and the Polish central bank plans to buy 150 tons of gold. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 1.3 tons [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the escalation of the tariff war, gold prices are steadily rising. It is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and Trump's delay in adding tariffs, it is advised to participate with caution [2]. - Silver Market - Market Performance: The price of silver increased. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 83.4 tons to 13,263.4 tons, while iShares silver ETF持仓 increased by 151 tons to 16,222.5 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump postponed the tariff increase on silver, and some New York inventory flowed back to London, alleviating the inventory shortage [2]. - Trading Strategy: Due to high domestic speculative sentiment, it is recommended to participate with caution [2]. Base Metals - Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.58% to 23,950 yuan/ton. The domestic monthly spread was - 415 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3,142 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: With mixed macro - sentiment, traditional aluminum demand is weak at high prices. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [3]. - Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 2.27% to 2,671 yuan/ton, and the domestic monthly spread was - 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, inventory accumulation intensifies the short - selling atmosphere, and the cost support continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [3]. - Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 20, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24,410 yuan/ton and 17,225 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic monthly spreads were - 24,410 yuan/ton and - 17,225 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas 0 - 3 monthly spreads were - 41.66 and - 47.13 dollars/ton respectively. Zinc inventories in seven regions increased by 0.36 million tons, and lead inventories in five regions increased by 0.16 million tons [3][4]. - Fundamentals: For zinc, macro - sentiment pushed the price to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and downstream demand is weak due to high prices. The supply has increased significantly, and the processing fee has jumped, but the low LME inventory provides support. For lead, domestic lead ingot inventories are accumulating, and the consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell short at high prices in the short term [4]. - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 1.13%. The position decreased by 10,615 lots to 225,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.48 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared to last week, mainly in Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, and production is expected to decline [4]. - Trading Strategy: With potential supply - side production cuts and demand - side production reduction expectations, the market is expected to oscillate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [4]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99%. The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $20 to $2,060 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was 22,605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. SMM expects January supply to be 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, the expected production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in January, and the total inventory days remained at 28 days [4]. - Trading Strategy: Due to environmental and safety issues in Jiangxi's lithium resources and export rush expectations on the demand side, the price is expected to rise easily and fall hard [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.39%. The position decreased by 939 lots to 43,632 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.57 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: This week, the downstream in the spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly. The production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th may support component exports [4]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight. Attention should be paid to the subsequent feedback of industry associations [4]. Black Industry - Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.4% to 3.005 million tons. The demand for building materials is relatively weak year - on - year, but the supply has decreased significantly. The demand for steel plates is stable, and the export is high. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and the production increase space is limited [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [6]. - Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The arrival of iron ore increased by 1.17 million tons to 28.98 million tons year - on - week, and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 3.6 million tons to 22.47 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral, and the port and steel mill inventories are at the lowest level in the same period of history [6]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 775 - 805 yuan/ton [6]. - Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. The supply at the port is high, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term is loose, and the long - term South American supply is expected to be large. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are marginally improving. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7]. - Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing area continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the selling pressure is not large. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The enthusiasm of northeast deep - processing enterprises to build inventories is high, but the policy - based corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The overall situation is that the near - term is loose, and the long - term is in a weak seasonal production - reduction period [7]. - Trading Strategy: Edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - Sugar - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5,188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis of Nanning spot - SR05 contract was 62 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price dropped significantly due to pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will last until February. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both are under pressure [8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated and declined, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's clothing export volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to oscillate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. China's cotton yarn import volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices. The price range reference is 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of egg - laying hens in production decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness to ship in the production area increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm in the trading end decreased, and the inventory increased. The egg price may decline seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - Hogs - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short term, the supply pressure increased, and the impact of snowfall ended. The hog price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm changes [8]. - Trading Strategy: Supply and demand have weakened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6,530 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis weakened. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into operation before, and some devices reduced load or stopped production. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply and demand were weak, and the geopolitical situation was volatile. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,808 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - Fundamentals: PVC trading was at a low - level stalemate. The upstream ex - factory price decreased and then stabilized. The supply was at a high level, and the demand of downstream factories decreased seasonally. The real - estate market weakened in November, and the social inventory accumulated at a high level [10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage or adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was $888 per ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,015 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased their loads, and the PX load decreased slightly. Overseas, South Korean and Vietnamese devices plan to increase loads, and the import supply will increase. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending - oil demand was in the off - season. For PTA, the supply was at a high level, and some factories had maintenance in January. The polyester factory's load decreased, the product profit was compressed, and the downstream entered the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: PX's strong expectations support the price, but it may face callback pressure in the short term due to terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to increase the processing fee in the 05 contract [10]. - Methanol - Market Performance: Affected by geopolitical factors, methanol first rose sharply and then oscillated and adjusted. As of January 20, the 05 contract closed at 2,206 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic methanol plant operating load remained above 90%, and the operating load in the northwest region was about 97%. The coal - to - methanol enterprises have few new device maintenance plans, and the overall production is likely to remain