铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Overseas, concerns about geopolitics and fiscal sustainability triggered a systemic correction in the global bond market, with the US and Japanese bonds leading the decline. The US experienced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and market risk appetite deteriorated significantly. The market volatility is expected to rise. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance announced an active fiscal policy, and the A - share market is in a phase of shrinking volume and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remains positive [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals reached new highs due to geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchases. Base metals showed different trends, with copper expected to maintain high - level oscillations, aluminum adjusting, and zinc and lead under pressure. Agricultural products such as palm oil showed a strong oscillation trend, while bean and rapeseed meal were in a low - level oscillation [4][5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Geopolitical and fiscal sustainability concerns caused a global bond market correction. The US faced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, with the dollar index falling to 98.5, the 10Y US bond yield reaching 4.3% and then dropping, and the US stock market falling by over 2%. Gold reached a new high of $4783, and market risk preference deteriorated [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Finance committed to an "increasing only" active fiscal policy in 2026, with measures to support small and medium - sized enterprises and consumers. The A - share market is in a shrinking and differentiating phase, with short - term adjustments in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, gold and silver reached new highs. Geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchase plan boosted the prices. The threat of US tariff hikes and EU's response to the Greenland issue increased geopolitical risks. It is expected that precious metals will remain strong in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak oscillation, and LME copper slightly corrected. Global copper inventories increased, with LME inventory rising to 156,000 tons and COMEX inventory reaching 547,000 tons. Trump's intervention in the Fed's policy and personnel appointment increased market risk aversion, and the soaring precious metals prices lifted the valuation center of copper. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LME aluminum also fell. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased. Trump's tariff threat on Europe increased political tensions, and in the fundamentals, supply was stable, and it was in the consumption off - season. The Shanghai aluminum market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [8][10]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,671 yuan/ton, down 2.91%. The supply side had minor changes, with some production resumptions and planned maintenance. The consumption side had stable electrolytic aluminum procurement, and the inventory in the exchange increased rapidly. Alumina prices remained weak [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,765 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Cast aluminum maintained high - level oscillations based on low supply and cost support. Consumption was weak, and it is expected to remain in an oscillatory state [12]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a narrow - range oscillation during the day and a downward shift at night. LME zinc closed down. The downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and the market was affected by increased risk aversion. It is expected that zinc prices will be under pressure in the short term [13][14]. Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally during the day and shifted downward at night. LME lead closed down. LME lead inventory increased significantly, and domestic downstream consumption was weak. Although there is cost support, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16][17]. Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and fell slightly at night. The rise in the yield of Japanese 40 - year bonds increased market risk aversion, suppressing tin prices. The fundamentals changed little, and tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. Rebar production slightly decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased with high inventory. The steel market is in the off - season, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [19]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. Spot market transactions were 116 tons. Iron ore supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. Although there is a pre - holiday restocking expectation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The coke spot market initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills have not responded. Demand was affected by the off - season and steel mill maintenance, and supply was abundant. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures showed mixed trends. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to reach 379 tons. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, South American supply is increasing. Domestic soybean arrivals are decreasing, and the market is in a state of de - stocking. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate at a low level [22]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed up 1.2%. High - frequency data showed an improvement in palm oil exports and a decline in production. The market is affected by geopolitical risks, but the fundamentals of production and demand are improving. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [23][24].