国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore prices are weakening, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [2][5]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak fluctuations due to disturbances in the raw material market [2][10]. - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it is in wide-range fluctuations; the demand-side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it is also in wide-range fluctuations [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing weak fluctuations [2][17]. - The market sentiment of thermal coal is weak, and the price will have a short-term weak adjustment [21]. - Logs are in a weak and volatile state [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The positions decreased by 29,929 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with a maximum drop of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.18%; the HC2605 was 3,276 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.97%. Spot prices in most regions declined, with a maximum drop of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - Macro and Industry News: BHP's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant, affecting production. Steel production, inventory, and demand data for January 15 and December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,552 yuan/ton and 5,528 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 4 yuan and the latter down 8 yuan. The silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,760 yuan/ton and 5,798 yuan/ton respectively, both down [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 20, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore increased by 12.04% year-on-year, and the import volume in December increased significantly. The export volume of ferrosilicon to various regions in 2025 was announced, and some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan or 4.3%; the J2605 coke contract was 1,673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan or 2.8%. Spot prices were mostly stable [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index was announced, and the coking coal online auction on January 19 had a low failure rate and mostly rising prices [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of decline. The January long - term agreement prices also decreased [21]. - Macro and Industry News: In December 2025, the national raw coal production increased month - on - month, and the annual output reached a new high. The coal import volume in December far exceeded expectations, and Indonesia's expected coal production quota in 2026 will be tightened [22]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts all declined, with daily declines of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively. The prices of most log varieties in the spot market remained stable [24]. - Macro and Industry News: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].