LLDPE：标品排产继续回升，现货交投转弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE futures have continued to decline, with the upstream conducting low - price pre - sales and the mid - and downstream replenishing short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but after the decline in the futures market, trading has weakened significantly, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6640, with a daily decline of 0.40%. The trading volume was 442,747, and the position increased by 9,748 [1]. - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 110 (compared to - 97 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 24 (unchanged from the day before) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In North China, the spot price yesterday was 6,530 yuan/ton (compared to 6,570 the day before); in East China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,720 the day before); in South China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,800 the day before) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market has continued to decline. The upstream has carried out low - price pre - sales, and the mid - and downstream have replenished short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth, and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but trading has weakened significantly after the decline in the futures market, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]