金信期货日刊-20260121

Group 1: Methanol Market - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: After the decline in methanol futures prices, it will be weak in the short - term and fluctuate within a range in the medium - term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operation rate as the key variables [2] - Key points from relevant content: - Reasons for price decline: Winter is the off - season for demand, MTO and other downstream profits are compressed, some devices plan to stop or reduce production; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipping pressure; there is a correction in market sentiment and profit - taking by funds [2] - Trading strategy: Treat it by shorting on rallies during corrections, operate with light positions, and take profits in batches [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The ChiNext Index shows signs of a stable rebound in the short - term, which is expected to drive the STAR Market to strengthen [7] - Key points from relevant content: - Market performance: Most A - share indexes opened and closed lower today, except for the Shanghai Composite Index which rebounded after hitting a low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes declined significantly [7] Group 3: Gold - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: After a period of shock adjustment, gold prices reached a new high, and the operation strategy is to go long [9] Group 4: Iron Ore - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support; technically, it has been falling continuously, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [11] - Key points from relevant content: - Market situation: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply surplus is further fermented; on the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a weak state [12] Group 5: Glass - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Technically, it has broken through an important support level, and the bearish view remains unchanged [13] - Key points from relevant content: - Market situation: The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has also been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side reform policies [14] Group 6: Rubber - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: There are reasons to be bearish on rubber. Firstly, although the commodity market atmosphere is still positive, there are signs of a correction, and rubber futures need to correct; secondly, the pressure of domestic spot inventory is gradually emerging [16] Group 7: Pulp - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The recent upward trend of pulp futures has been interrupted, and it has entered a new stage of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, the recent changes include the halt of the further rise of hardwood pulp (staying around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price. It should be treated with a bearish view in the oscillation [20]