每日投资策略：关税战恐重燃，市场续观望-20260121

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the market is currently cautious due to the potential resurgence of trade wars between the US and Europe, leading to a soft performance in A-shares and a continuation of weakness in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology sectors [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 76 points or 0.29%, at 26,487 points, marking a four-day decline totaling 512 points or 1.9% [3] - The total market turnover was 237.766 billion, with a net inflow of 3.662 billion from northbound trading [3] Group 2: Investment Insights - UBS forecasts a 15% upside potential for the Hong Kong and China stock markets this year, favoring H-shares over A-shares due to a positive outlook on Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks, with expected average earnings growth of 25% or more in the coming years [7] - The report highlights interesting investment themes in Chinese stocks, including technology autonomy, healthcare, new consumption, and high-yield financial stocks, despite a muted overall economic growth outlook for China [7] - UBS anticipates a 4.5% economic growth for China this year, with real estate investment expected to decline by 17% year-on-year, posing a significant economic risk [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Duty Free Group plans to acquire DFS Group's Greater China retail business for up to $395 million (approximately 3.081 billion HKD), with the acquisition funded by internal resources [12] - The acquisition will involve issuing new H-shares at a price of 77.21 HKD, which represents an 11.66% discount to the closing price of 87.4 HKD [12] - China Duty Free Group aims to establish a strategic partnership with LVMH in retail sectors, enhancing cooperation in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, and customer experience [12] Group 4: Sector Analysis - China International Capital Corporation predicts a 40% increase in gold prices this year, making gold a more attractive investment amid rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower US interest rates [9] - The report emphasizes that central banks and insurance companies are increasing their gold holdings, with a significant rise in gold purchases in 2022, which is expected to continue in 2023 and 2024 [9]