宏观金融类：文字早评2026/01/21星期二-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, attention should be paid to market rhythm. For stock index futures, the strategy is to buy on dips. For Treasury bonds, the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter. For precious metals, there are medium - term bullish factors. For most commodities, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there are short - term fluctuations and different supply - demand situations for each variety [4][7][9]. Summary by Categories 1. Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. The Ministry of Finance provides fiscal subsidies for technology - innovation loans, and the central bank offers re - loans. Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce, up 33% this year, and spot gold is up nearly 10%. Some违规 accounts on Xueqiu have been permanently banned [2]. - Basis Point Ratios: The basis point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: In the long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Tuesday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.51%, 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.04% respectively. The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy in 2026, and the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy is extended to the end of 2026. The central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: The economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand depends on residents' income and policy support. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 1.98%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Poland plans to buy 150 tons of gold, and the US - EU relationship is tense, which is beneficial to gold [8]. - Strategy: In the medium term, the Fed may increase the easing amplitude, and it is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased, and copper prices fell. LME copper closed at $12,796 per ton, down 1.47%, and Shanghai copper closed at 99,930 yuan per ton [11]. - Strategy: The expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals is weakening, and the market sentiment is cooling. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Market risk preference weakened, and aluminum prices fell. LME aluminum closed at $3,118 per ton, down 1.48%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,775 yuan per ton [13]. - Strategy: Tensions between the US and Europe have weakened market sentiment, but high US aluminum premiums and low global LME aluminum inventory limit the downside of aluminum prices. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [14]. Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 24,417 yuan per ton. LME zinc rose to $3,227 per ton. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased [15][16]. - Strategy: The port inventory of zinc ore and the import TC of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, and the zinc price has room to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to follow the sector and may fluctuate [17]. Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index rose 0.25% to 17,228 yuan per ton. LME lead rose to $2,058 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [18]. - Strategy: The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is improving marginally. The lead price may fluctuate with the sector [19]. Nickel - Market Information: On January 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.67% to 141,360 yuan per ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [20]. - Strategy: Although the production of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, the inventory has not reflected it. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - Market Information: On January 20, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.44% to 399,000 yuan per ton. The supply is limited by raw materials and high prices, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased [22]. - Strategy: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, but the inventory increase may put pressure on the price. The tin price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose 5.52%. The import of carbonate lithium in December increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [23]. - Strategy: There are uncertainties in the lithium mine, and the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [24]. Alumina - Market Information: On January 20, the alumina index fell 2.21% to 2,666 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import loss was reported. The futures inventory decreased [25][26]. - Strategy: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the alumina market has problems such as over - capacity and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract rose 0.28% to 14,345 yuan per ton. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased [28]. - Strategy: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the price fluctuating at a high level [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main contract AD2603 fell 0.55% to 22,765 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased [29]. - Strategy: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed, but the demand is general. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [30]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3,111 yuan per ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.69% to 3,276 yuan per ton. The inventory and spot price changed [32]. - Strategy: The steel market is in a bottom - range shock. The safety inspection after the Baotou steel explosion may support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) fell 0.57% to 789.50 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [34]. - Strategy: The overseas iron ore shipment is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of steel mills and iron - water production [35][36]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: On January 20, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) fell 4.30% to 1,124 yuan per ton, and the coke main contract (J2605) fell 2.76% to 1,673.5 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [37]. - Strategy: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there are risks of short - term market sentiment shocks [39][40][41]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: On Tuesday, the glass main contract fell 1.31% to 1,056 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [42]. - Strategy: The glass market sentiment is weakening. The supply is low, and the demand is light. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [43]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: On Tuesday, the soda ash main contract fell 1.26% to 1,177 yuan per ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the positions of long and short changed [44]. - Strategy: Affected by the glass market, the soda ash market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On January 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.83% to 5,760 yuan per ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) rose 0.07% to 5,552 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [45]. - Strategy: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, while that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future market drivers may come from the overall market sentiment and cost factors [47][48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) fell 1.13% to 8,745 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [49]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weakening. The price may fluctuate due to news [50]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) rose 0.39% to 50,700 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [52]. - Strategy: The market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure of polysilicon is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate increased, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [55][56]. - Strategy: The rubber price is expected to continue to fall after consolidation. It is recommended to short on the break of 16,000 for RU2605 and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [58]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures fell 1.27% to 437 yuan per barrel. The inventories of related refined products and crude oil increased [59]. - Strategy: The Latin - American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to rise [60]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot price of methanol changed, and the main futures contract changed [61]. - Strategy: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a chance of improvement in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips [62]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot price of urea changed, and the main futures contract changed [63][64]. - Strategy: The import window of urea has opened, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [65]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene was stable, the spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The supply - demand and profit indicators changed [66]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose to 4,807 yuan. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [68]. - Strategy: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term electricity price and export incentives may support the price, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract fell to 3,661 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [70]. - Strategy: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rebound and compress the valuation in the medium term [71]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose to 5,144 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [72]. - Strategy: The supply of PTA is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [73]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose to 7,232 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [74]. - Strategy: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. There is a chance to go long on dips following the crude oil price after the Spring Festival [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The main contract of PE fell to 6,640 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - Strategy: The crude oil price may bottom out, and the PE valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may be supported [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The main contract of PP fell to 6,461 yuan. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [78]. - Strategy: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [79][80]. 5. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price generally fell, and the market demand was weak [82]. - Strategy: Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the short - term price may be strong. However, the medium - term supply pressure is large, and the price may be under pressure [83]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand were normal [84]. - Strategy: The spot price of eggs has increased during the pre - holiday stocking period, and the near - month contract may fluctuate strongly. The long - term outlook is positive, but there are uncertainties [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import, supply, and demand data of soybeans and rapeseed are reported [86][87]. - Strategy: The USDA report is slightly negative, and China's purchase of US soybeans and potential reduction of Canadian rapeseed import tariffs are negative for domestic meal prices. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly [88]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The oil futures price rebounded. The domestic three - major oil inventories decreased, and the supply - demand data of palm oil and other oils are reported [89][90]. - Strategy: The current fundamental situation of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar decreased, and the import and production data are reported [92][93]. - Strategy: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar - making season ends. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the import, supply, and demand data are reported [95][96]. - Strategy: In the medium -