银泰证券鑫新闻：研究所日报-20260121

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" with a focus on key areas, including a special guarantee plan of 500 billion yuan for private investment to guide banks in providing 500 billion yuan in loans for small and micro enterprises[2] - A loan interest subsidy policy will be implemented for small and micro enterprises, covering 14 key industrial chains and related sectors, which is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97%, with a total trading volume of 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw declines of 2.39% for the Nasdaq, 2.06% for the S&P 500, and 1.76% for the Dow Jones, reflecting a general downturn in global markets[3] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond was 1.8260%, with a change of -1.66 basis points, while the average rates for interbank R001 and R007 were 1.4212% and 1.5429%, respectively[3] - The U.S. dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and real estate, with gains of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55%, respectively[3] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and computers experienced declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94%[3]