Guoxin Securities·2026-01-21 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17]. Core Views - Anta Group showed steady growth in Q4 2025, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, while FILA recorded mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands achieved a growth rate of 35-40% [2][4][5]. - The overall performance of the group aligns with the management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [3][5]. - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the global sports market through its multi-brand strategy and diversified brand matrix in China [4][15]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA's growth accelerated, and other brands continued their high growth trajectory [2][5]. - The online discount rates for Anta and FILA improved, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue declined slightly in Q4, with a year-end inventory-to-sales ratio slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [6][7]. - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and improved online discount rates [9][10][11]. - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, achieved revenue growth of 35-40%, with Descente's revenue growth around 40% for the year [12][13]. Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts downward due to macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [17][18]. - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-21x for 2026 [4][17]. Market Positioning - Anta's positioning in the mass market makes it more susceptible to external economic pressures, while FILA and other brands are expected to continue their growth despite market challenges [4][15].