硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡，锰硅，需求端预期收紧，宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it will fluctuate widely; the demand - side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it will also fluctuate widely [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2603 is 5552 (up 4 from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 148,515 and an open interest of 245,555; the closing price of SF2605 is 5528 (down 8), with a trading volume of 52,644 and an open interest of 82,583. - For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2603 is 5760 (down 48), with a trading volume of 140,554 and an open interest of 215,166; the closing price of SM2605 is 5798 (down 50), with a trading volume of 183,171 and an open interest of 307,065 [1]. - Spot Data: - The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton (down 20). - The spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton (down 20). - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread Data: - For ferrosilicon, the spot - futures spread (spot - 03 futures) is - 302 yuan/ton (down 24), and the near - far month spread (SF2603 - SF2605) is 24 yuan/ton (up 12). - For silicomanganese, the spot - futures spread (spot - 03 futures) is - 80 yuan/ton (up 28), and the near - far month spread (SM2603 - SM2605) is - 38 yuan/ton (up 2). - The cross - variety spread (SM2603 - SF2603) is 208 yuan/ton (down 52), and (SM2605 - SF2605) is 270 yuan/ton (down 42) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Price Information: - On January 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions: Shaanxi 5200 - 5300, Ningxia 5200 - 5300 (down 50), Qinghai 5250 - 5300 (down 25), Gansu 5250 - 5300 (down 50), Inner Mongolia 5250 - 5350 (down 50); 75 ferrosilicon in different regions: Shaanxi 5800 - 5850, Ningxia 5750 - 5800 (down 50), Qinghai 5700 - 5800, Gansu 5700, Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1060 - 1080 (up 10), and 75 is 1100 - 1140 (up 10). The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - Import and Export Data: - In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore from January to December was 3281.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 352.62 million tons (up 12.04%). The top ten import sources are South Africa, Ghana, Gabon, etc. In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 327.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 58 million tons (up 21.53%) and a year - on - year increase of 72.17 million tons (up 28.27%) [2][3]. - In 2025, the top ten regions for China's ferrosilicon exports were Japan, South Korea, Mexico, etc. [3]. - Procurement Information: - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the ferrosilicon procurement price at 5815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 900 tons. - A steel mill in Fujian set the silicomanganese price at 5790 yuan/ton in January, with a procurement volume of 13000 tons. - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicomanganese procurement price at 5900 yuan/ton and the 72 ferrosilicon procurement price at 5780 yuan/ton, with procurement volumes of 2000 tons and 400 tons respectively [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3].