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Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's nickel supply is increasingly significant, with its reserves accounting for 42% of the global total, and its production expected to dominate global output in the coming years [3][15] - The demand for nickel is primarily driven by stainless steel, which is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while the growth of demand from ternary batteries is slowing down due to competition from lithium iron phosphate batteries [5][31] - Recent regulatory changes in Indonesia are expected to tighten the management of nickel resources, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the market [6][40] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing price for nickel is reported at 9453.04, with a 52-week high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Nickel Supply - Indonesia's nickel reserves are 55 million tons, representing 42% of global reserves, with Brazil and Australia holding 12% and 18% respectively [15] - Global nickel production is forecasted to reach 3.52 million tons in 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and 3.81 million tons in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% increase [15] Nickel Smelting - The report discusses the profitability of the MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) process, which is currently favorable due to high cobalt prices, while the RKEF (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace) process faces challenges due to high nickel ore prices and poor downstream nickel-iron prices [4][21] Demand Analysis - Stainless steel remains the dominant demand driver for nickel, with an expected demand of around 2.3 million tons in 2025, accounting for 65% of total demand [5][31] - The growth rate for ternary battery demand is projected at 7%, with total demand around 480,000 tons, representing 14% of the market [5][35] Regulatory Impact - Indonesia's recent mining policies are tightening regulations on nickel development, which could significantly impact the supply-demand balance [6][40] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel ore production targets to 250 million tons in 2026, down from 364 million tons in 2025, which may alleviate oversupply concerns [43] Market Dynamics - Nickel has been notably absent from the recent metal bull market, with a price increase of only 3% since 2024, suggesting potential for a rebound if supply constraints materialize [7][47] - Companies such as Liqin Resources and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of a price rebound due to their established wet metallurgy processes [7][50]