金融期货早评-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Market Information: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - Core Judgments and Transmission Logic: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - Exchange Rate Analysis: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - Strategy Recommendations: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - Market Review: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - Important Information: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - Market Interpretation: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Review: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - Important Information: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - Core Views: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - Market Review: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - Information Sorting: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - Trading Judgments: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - Industry Performance: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - Viewpoint: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Review: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - Industry Performance: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper - Market Review: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - Industry Information: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - Viewpoint: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - Core Views: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel - Market Review: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - Industry Performance: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - Market Analysis: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - Oilseeds - Market Review: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - Outlook: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - Oils - Market Review: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - Viewpoint: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil - Market Review: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - Industry Performance: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - Core Logic: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - Asphalt - Spot Situation: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - Fundamental Situation: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - Viewpoint: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium - Market Review: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - Trading Logic: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - Viewpoint: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - Trading Logic: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - Viewpoint: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper - Market Review: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - Spot Market: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - Viewpoint: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - LPG - Market Dynamics: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - Spot Feedback: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - Viewpoint: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - PTA - PX - Fundamental Situation: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - Viewpoint: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - MEG - Bottle Chips - Inventory: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - Fundamental Situation: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - Viewpoint: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - Methanol - Market Dynamics: The methanol price changed [45]. - Spot Feedback: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - Viewpoint: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - PP - Market Dynamics: The PP price decreased [45]. - Spot Feedback: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - Viewpoint: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - PE - Market Dynamics: The PE price decreased [49]. - Spot Feedback: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - Viewpoint: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene - Market Review: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - Spot Feedback: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - Rubber - Market Trends: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - Related Information: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - Core Views: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - Glass: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - Propylene - Market Dynamics: The propylene price decreased [56]. - Spot Feedback: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - Viewpoint: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Review: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - Core Logic: The production growth of finished products has slowed