宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026年1月21日）-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, with a volatile and weak intraday trend. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, as real - world contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season, continuing the volatile and weak operation, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and volatile and weak. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions and the weak and volatile steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills is stabilizing, and rebar production has contracted again. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply reduction is not expected to be sustainable, and the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. However, the high - frequency daily trading volume is still sluggish, and both are at the lowest levels in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the seasonal weakness of demand remains unchanged, which is likely to drag down steel prices [3]. - Currently, the rebar demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly operating, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the cost decline also drags down the price. Therefore, the steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season and continue the volatile and weak operation [3].