生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the overall supply of sugar is relatively abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to be weak in the near term. The upward space of pulp is limited, and there is support at the bottom. The upward space of double - offset paper futures is also restricted, and cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - term with short - term adjustments. - For the fresh fruit sector, the apple futures may experience high - level adjustments in the short - term and support in the medium - term. The jujube futures may have a short - term bottom - support and a transition to a supply - demand balance situation [2][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend to reduce long positions. The support from factors such as new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak - value decline year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - Jujube 2605: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to decline seasonally. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - Sugar 2605: Recommend short - term short positions with a light position. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively abundant. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [20]. - Pulp 2605: Recommend short positions within the range. Although there are still positive factors in supply and warehouse - receipt cost increase, the downstream performance has been average recently, which may put pressure on the market. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [20]. - Double - offset paper 2605: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis has expanded to support the market temporarily. However, the subsequent publication orders may weaken, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4350 [20]. - Cotton 2605: Recommend to reduce long positions. The foreign market is operating at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. The far - end positive expectations are strong, but the short - term sentiment has retreated, and the price may be adjusted. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 655,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [21]. - Spot Market: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas are stable. In Shandong, the sales volume has slightly increased, and in Shaanxi, the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable during the Spring Festival stocking period [21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. From January 1 to 20, 2026, Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. - As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. As of January 15, 2026, the sugar production in India reached 15.885 million tons, higher than the same period last year. From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to January 17, 2026, the sugar production in Thailand decreased by 16.09% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market demand has significantly slowed down. The futures market fluctuations have made traders and investors cautious. The price of NBSK has dropped, and traders expect further price declines and have raised the forward resale quotes [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market As of Thursday this week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed has decreased, and the operating load rate was 57.43%, with a marginal increase [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, China's cotton cloth imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of meters, weight, and amount. The export volume and amount of cotton yarn decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. - In December 2025, India's textile exports decreased year - on - year, while clothing exports increased. Japan's cotton imports reached the highest level since September 2024. As of January 15, 2026, the new - season seed - cotton listing volume in Pakistan was basically the same as the previous year [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9371, up 26 or 0.28% [32]. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8700, down 115 or 1.30% [32]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5183, down 61 or 1.16% [32]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5376, up 14 or 0.26% [32]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14525, down 20 or 0.14% [32]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan [40]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [40]. - The spot price of sugar was 5330 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1180 yuan [40]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of cotton was 15856 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1076 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the basis of Apple 5 - month, Jujube main contract, Sugar main continuous contract, Pulp main continuous contract, and Cotton 5 - month [51][54][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: The current value is 1249, a month - on - month decrease of 121 and a year - on - year increase of 1769. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips [59]. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 240, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 90. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 17, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 149. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [59]. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 175, a month - on - month decrease of 10 and a year - on - year decrease of 10. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short position changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton [66][70][77]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The warehouse - receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 706 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of sugar is 14439, a month - on - month increase of 313 and a year - on - year decrease of 9692 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of pulp is 139554, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 201310 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of cotton is 9647, a month - on - month decrease of 11 and a year - on - year increase of 3167 [91]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [94][101][108].