国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, positive trend intensities suggest a more bullish outlook, while negative ones indicate a bearish view [14][17][20] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple energy - chemical commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment suggestions. For instance, some commodities like PX and PTA are affected by stock market movements, while others such as methanol are expected to oscillate based on market sentiment and inventory patterns [11][12][41] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Driven by the rise of polyester leading stocks, prices increased. However, the industry may face pressure after the Spring Festival. Future supply is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to consider hedging strategies [11] - PTA: Also affected by stock market trends, future supply - demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to reducing processing fees [12] - MEG: Ranges in an oscillating market with limited downward space. Focus on basis and 5 - 9 positive spreads, considering factors like port inventory and coal - based load changes [13] Rubber - It is in a weakly oscillating state. Factors such as inventory increases and weakening bottom support of natural rubber contribute to this trend [14][16] Synthetic Rubber - It operates weakly in the short term. Although cost support limits the downward space, downstream resistance to high prices affects the market [17][19] LLDPE - Standard product production continues to rise, and spot trading has weakened. Supply - demand pressure may come from high - capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [20][21] PP - Production remains at a low level, and profit repair is limited. Cost - end pressure and weak demand are the main issues, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [23][24] Caustic Soda - It is under pressure. High production, high inventory, and weak demand lead to continuous price decline, especially before the Spring Festival [25][27] Pulp - It oscillates weakly. Weak downstream demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [29][32] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Supply pressure is not significant, but downstream demand is relatively weak [34][35] Methanol - It is expected to oscillate. Market sentiment and inventory patterns influence its price, with limited upward and downward space [37][41] Urea - It oscillates and consolidates, with a narrowing downward space. Agricultural demand provides support, but short - term price may correct [42][44] Styrene - It oscillates strongly. Export and downstream restocking drive the market, but attention should be paid to the situation of pure benzene [45][46] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. High production and stable downstream procurement result in a stable price [48][50] PVC - It oscillates weakly. High production, high inventory, and weak demand are the main characteristics, and the market may face pressure in the short term [53][54] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows a fluctuating upward trend with a strong night - session rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market has slightly shrunk [56] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a temporary oscillating market. Factors such as spot price decline, geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in supply - demand due to policy adjustments affect the market [58][72] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both are in a short - term oscillating market. Short - fiber processing fees are at a low level, and the trading atmosphere of bottle - chip is fair [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to close short positions. The market price is stable, and production and sales are in a normal state [76] Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. Port inventory has decreased, and price trends are affected by supply - demand and market sentiment [81][82]