中辉黑色观点-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil): Cautiously Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron Ore: Cautiously Bullish [1][6][7] - Coke: Bearish [1][9][10] - Coking Coal: Bearish [1][12][13] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] Core Views - Rebar: Demand has increased month-on-month, while production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profit margins are decent, but production growth is limited due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, curbing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will trade in a range, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in inventory, but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - Iron Ore: Both arrivals and shipments of foreign ore have decreased this period. After the price decline, some steel enterprises are willing to purchase, driving the ore price up temporarily [1][6][7]. - Coke: The first round of price increase was blocked. After the recent rise in raw coal prices, coke enterprises' losses have deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm remains okay, with a slight decline in supply. Iron production has decreased slightly, and downstream restocking has improved slightly, with purchases mainly based on demand. Short-term focus is on the extent of steel mill production cuts, with a bearish outlook [1][8][9]. - Coking Coal: Previously shut-down coal mines have started to resume production, significantly increasing supply. Import volume at ports has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. There are no obvious changes in the fundamentals. Short-term focus is on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines, with a bearish outlook [1][11][12]. - Silicomanganese: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has started to decline but remains at a high level. New steel tenders are starting, with tender prices mostly between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and a leading steel mill's final price at 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply in the main production area has increased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. New steel tenders are starting, with a leading steel mill's final price at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, with spot prices also falling in various regions [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Overall, it will maintain a range-bound operation, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in different regions. The basis fluctuates around par [2]. - Operation Suggestion: High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. Iron Ore - Price: No specific price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the price decline has led to some steel enterprises' purchase intentions, driving the price up temporarily [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, as the decrease in arrivals and shipments and restocking needs support the price [7]. Coke - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have remained stable, while others have decreased [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Bearish, with a focus on the extent of steel mill production cuts [9][10]. Coking Coal - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have increased, while others have decreased [11]. - Operation Suggestion: Bearish, with a focus on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [12][13]. Iron Alloys - Silicomanganese: - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in various regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - Operation Suggestion: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices [15][16]. - Ferrosilicon: - Price: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have decreased in most regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - Operation Suggestion: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices and other steel mills' actions [15][16].