碳酸锂：消息扰动推涨高位，警惕短期波动性风险，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high, but short - term volatility risks should be watched out for, and attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost and supply - demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, with an intraday increase of nearly 9% and closing at the daily limit price of 160,500 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 17 tons to 27,671 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 152,500 yuan/ton. Upstream suppliers were less willing to sell scattered orders, and downstream material factories mostly maintained the rhythm of purchasing as needed and watched cautiously [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening the cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%), the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly month - on - month, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output of SMM was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply was stabilizing at a high level [2] - Demand: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was cleared. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of SMM's four - location samples increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was cleared again, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days, the upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] Macro - level Factors - Demand - side: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulated terminal consumption and improved macro - liquidity [3] - Supply - side: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [3] - Industrial Planning: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [3] - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - positive atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading system again, which might restrain the price fluctuation range in the short term, but the potential impact on liquidity and volatility in extreme market conditions should be watched out for [3]