华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output, and Anhui short - process steel enterprises' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices. It will run in an oscillating and consolidating manner [2][3] Aluminum - Macro - level: The market is nervous about Trump's new tariff threat to Europe, which will negatively impact the aluminum demand expectation. China's policy supports the domestic market [2] - Fundamental: Snow in Henan affected transportation, weakening processing enterprise demand. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and its price may decline. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased slightly but is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons to 749,000 tons on January 19 [2][3] - The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - events and downstream feedback [4]