Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform in 2026 will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up the prices of resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.60, 4708.60, 4674.00, and 4615.00 respectively, with price drops of - 21.00, - 18.40, - 11.80, and - 15.40. The trading volumes were 25937.00, 79866.00, 19613.00, and 4293.00, and the open interest increased by 1118.00, 398.00, 487.00, and 591.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3073.60, 3075.40, 3069.60, and 3040.80 respectively, with price drops of - 3.00, - 3.00, - 5.20, and - 3.80. The trading volumes were 9734.00, 31503.00, 5816.00, and 1675.00, and the open interest changes were 166.00, - 503.00, 251.00, and 221.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8257.80, 8248.80, 8142.00, and 8024.20 respectively, with price drops of - 40.80, - 41.00, - 21.40, and - 12.20. The trading volumes were 37883.00, 123309.00, 38855.00, and 13522.00, and the open interest increased by 3365.00, 3742.00, 5200.00, and 6430.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8162.20, 8120.80, 7946.00, and 7778.00 respectively, with price drops of - 80.60, - 84.60, - 72.60, and - 79.40. The trading volumes were 41590.00, 150527.00, 38608.00, and 15115.00, and the open interest changes were 846.00, 3572.00, - 535.00, and 4320.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 2.00, 1.80, - 9.00, and - 41.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 4.20, 1.20, - 15.80, and - 43.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4718.88, 3070.65, 8247.80, and 8182.75 respectively, with price drops of - 0.33, - 0.17, - 0.48, and - 1.00. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 282.72, 60.00, 289.86, and 336.69, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6719.61, 1757.36, 5881.71, and 5790.37 respectively [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, optional consumption, and real - estate finance industries had price increases of 0.97%, 1.23%, 0.62%, and 0.64% respectively, while the industrial, pharmaceutical and healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications services industries had price drops of - 0.32%, - 0.95%, - 1.96%, and - 2.88% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 8.28, - 10.28, - 44.88, and - 103.88 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.95, 4.75, - 1.05, and - 29.85 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 10.00, 1.00, - 105.80, and - 223.60 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 20.55, - 61.95, - 236.75, and - 404.75 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4113.65, 14155.63, 8727.52, and 3277.98 respectively, with price drops of - 0.01%, - 0.97%, - 1.19%, and - 1.79% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26487.51, 52991.10, 6796.86, and 24689.67 respectively, with price drops of - 0.29%, - 1.11%, - 2.06%, and - 1.08% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Policy Measures: A package of policies for promoting domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment, the implementation of a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, and the optimization of loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, personal consumption loans, and equipment renewal loans [2] - Global Bond Market: The Greenland crisis and concerns about fiscal pressure have triggered a global bond - market sell - off. Japanese long - term government bonds have been sold off on a large scale, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds have risen by more than 25 basis points in a single day. The yields of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have all risen by about 8 basis points. A Danish pension fund plans to liquidate its US Treasury bond holdings [2] - Government Speeches and Policies: Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 and held talks with the US Treasury Secretary and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies should focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [2] 6. Industry Information - Water Resources and Water - saving Industry: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will continue to improve the total water - resource management and comprehensive water - saving system, aiming to increase the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water to over 0.6 and expand the scale of the water - saving industry to over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - Oil Price Adjustment: The domestic refined - oil price has increased for the first time in 2026. Starting from 24:00 on January 20, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 85 yuan per ton, and the prices of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - grade diesel have increased by 0.07 yuan per liter on average [2] - Medical Insurance Policy: The National Healthcare Security Administration has officially issued a guide for the pricing of auxiliary operation items, standardizing 37 price items, 5 additional items, and 1 extended item [2] - Land Supply Plan: Beijing has announced its 2026 construction - land supply plan, with 200 - 240 hectares of commercial - residential land and 350 hectares of affordable - housing land to be supplied. A city - renewal plan index has been listed for the first time [2] 7. Stock Index Views - Market Performance: The three major US stock indexes declined, and the domestic stock index fell in the previous trading day. The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the gains, while the communication sector led the losses. The market trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan. On January 19, the margin trading balance decreased by 8.501 billion yuan to 2.705932 trillion yuan [2] - Market Outlook: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner, driven by the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets [2]
2026/1/21：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260121
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2026-01-21 02:40