20260121申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures closed in the red. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable; for drawn PP, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina also remained stable. Fundamentally, the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices continues to support chemical products at the cost end. However, after the short - term rebound, crude oil has started to fluctuate, which has a certain impact on chemicals. After continuous rebounds, polyolefins may fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Change: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6640, and 6664 respectively, with price drops of -14, -27, and -27 and percentage drops of -0.21%, -0.40%, and -0.40% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6459, 6461, and 6492 respectively, with price drops of -37, -21, and -23 and percentage drops of -0.57%, -0.32%, and -0.35% respectively [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 50, 384215, and 20448 respectively; the trading volumes for PP January, May, and September contracts were 141, 293620, and 21559 respectively. The open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were 71, 495212, and 51049 respectively; the open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were 586, 466241, and 85985 respectively. The changes in open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were +29, +9748, and +2270 respectively; the changes in open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were +79, -4253, and -3354 respectively [2] - Price Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 66, -24, and -42 respectively; the previous spreads were 53, -24, and -29 respectively. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -2, -31, and 33 respectively; the previous spreads were 14, -33, and 19 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2208 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6300 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Spot Market: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Tuesday (January 20), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.34 per barrel, up $0.90 from the previous trading day, a 1.51% increase, with a trading range of $58.95 - $60.68. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.98 from the previous trading day, a 1.53% increase, with a trading range of $63.38 - $65.15 [2]