申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal closed slightly higher, while rapeseed meal closed lower in a volatile manner. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has increased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, and institutions are raising their production forecasts. However, good domestic crushing data in the US provides some support for soybean prices. In China, state - reserve auctions have been successful, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to pressure prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on domestic rapeseed prices [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was relatively strong. Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were strong with a decline in production, and a tariff cut is expected to improve future exports, supporting palm oil futures prices. There is positive news for US soybean oil demand due to biofuel policy expectations. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement has weakened rapeseed oil prices recently, also limiting the short - term prices of soybean and palm oils [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut were 2727, 2327, and 8844, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are - 364, 62, and - 746 respectively, with previous values of - 390, - 26, and - 627 [2]. - Ratios - Spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are - 238, 2394, 492, 1.21, 2.72, and 4978 respectively, with previous values of - 179, 2419, 457, 1.19, 2.73, and 4962 [2]. International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bu), 52.51 (cents/lb), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8570 and 8620 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.47%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8800, with a percentage change of 1.15%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9810 and 9880, with percentage changes of 0.31% and 0.51% [2]. - Basis: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 538, 52, and 862 respectively. The basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 344, 101, and - 756 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 150, 1210, and 650 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 237, - 247, - 54, - 201, 321, and 414 respectively, with previous values of - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 26,985, 1,148, 1,935, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% (AmSpec data) and 11.4% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the US shipped 611,983 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 45.78% of the total export inspection volume of the week, down from 58.91% the previous week [3]. - As of January 17, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, up from 0.6% last week, compared to 1.2% last year and a five - year average of 3.2% [3]. - The NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record [3]. - Canada and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement to reduce tariff barriers in the electric vehicle and rapeseed sectors [3].