橡胶：震荡偏弱20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - Spot Market: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]