携程（TCOM.O）：反垄断立案不改长期竞争力，估值底部布局正当时

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $85.00, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current price of $61.77 [6]. Core Insights - Despite the antitrust investigation, the company's long-term competitive position remains strong, particularly in the mid-to-high-end travel market. The investigation is viewed as a manageable issue rather than a fundamental threat to the company's business model [8]. - The report highlights that the market has overreacted to the investigation, leading to a significant undervaluation of the company's stock, which is currently trading at a historical low valuation [8]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from $44.56 billion in 2023 to $79.92 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.0% [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at $44,562 million, with a year-on-year growth of 122.2%. Forecasts suggest revenues will reach $53,377 million in 2024 and $61,971 million in 2025 [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow from $9,518 million in 2023 to $23,142 million by 2027, with a significant increase of 635.5% in 2023 compared to the previous year [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from $15.2 in 2023 to $34.9 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a robust competitive moat in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, particularly in high-end hotel bookings and business travel, due to its strong brand trust and customer service policies [8]. - The report notes that the core issue in the online travel industry is supply overcapacity and scarce traffic, which creates high switching costs for suppliers reliant on the company for order conversion [8]. - The anticipated regulatory changes are expected to focus on promoting fair competition without undermining the company's fundamental business model, allowing it to maintain its market position [8].