20260121申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper price closed 1.28% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to supply disruptions in mines, the global copper supply - demand outlook has shifted to a deficit. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed 1.0% lower overnight. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, the zinc price may experience a phased correction. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 100,940 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 155 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 12,754 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 101.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,425 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 3,850 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 23,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,108 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 12.62 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 485,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 3,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 24,365 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,173 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 43.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 105,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,475 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 141,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,740 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 17,614 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 200.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 285,708 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,165 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,029 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 46.32 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 203,500 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,850 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 399,000 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5,810 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 49,412 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 92.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 6,440 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 505 tons [2].