20260121申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session rose 0.91%, geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks; the demand for crude oil from the "Joint Declaration" member countries is expected to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026 and increase to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] - Methanol night session rose 1.14%, domestic CTO/MTO start - up decreased slightly, overall coastal methanol inventory declined slightly, and it is short - term bullish while paying attention to the situation in Iran [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For SC, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 453.7 and 454.8 respectively, with price increases of 1.1 and 0.9 and increases of 0.24% and 0.20%; for WTI, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 60.14 and 59.83 respectively, with price increases of 0.44 and 0.47 and increases of 0.74% and 0.79%; for Brent, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 63.37 and 62.96 respectively, with price increases of 0.62 and 0.61 and increases of 0.99% and 0.98%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided, and there are changes in open interests [2] - Spread Information: The current spreads of SC near - month - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, etc. are given, and there are also comparisons with the previous values [2] - Exchange Rate Information: The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates are provided [2] - Comment: The external market rose [2] Spot Market - International Market: The current prices and previous prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, etc. are given, and the international crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose [2] - Domestic Market: The current prices and previous prices of domestic crude oil such as Daqing and Shengli, as well as the wholesale price indices of gasoline and diesel, FOB naphtha in Singapore, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene are provided [2] Commodity - Specific Analysis - Crude Oil: Trump's attitude towards Iran and Venezuela affected the market, and the OPEC report gave demand forecasts for the "Joint Declaration" member countries' crude oil in 2026 and 2027 [3] - Methanol: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load decreased, the import volume decreased, the coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume of imported ships from January 15 to February 1 is 73.15 - 74 million tons [3]