铁矿石：供需宽松预期加剧，盘面价格高位回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows high year - on - year growth, price highs are restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected that the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to mainly short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. Before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 19, the total global iron ore shipments were 29.898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown super - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [1]. Inventory - Steel mill imports of iron ore inventory have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that as arrivals decline and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]. 4. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [2]