Guoxin Securities·2026-01-21 02:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17] Core Views - In Q4 2025, Anta Group showed steady growth, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, FILA achieving mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands recording a 35-40% positive growth. For the entire year of 2025, the main brand also saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA and other brands achieved 45-50% positive growth [2][4][5] - The overall performance of Anta Group is stable, with the main brand's growth affected by the broader market environment, while FILA's growth accelerated against the trend. Other brands like Descente and Kolon continued to show high growth, aligning with management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [4][15] Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Anta Group's overall growth in Q4 2025 was steady, with other brands maintaining high growth rates. The main brand's growth slowed sequentially, while FILA's growth accelerated. Online discounts improved, and inventory levels were healthy. The brand's channel upgrades and overseas expansion are progressing simultaneously [3][5][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's revenue in Q4 2025 declined slightly, with a sales-to-inventory ratio slightly above 5 months. Online discounts narrowed year-on-year, and channel upgrades and overseas expansion are ongoing. The Champion series is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in revenue by the end of 2025 [6][8] - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits in Q4, with a healthy sales-to-inventory ratio and improved online discounts. Offline sales saw high single-digit growth, while online sales grew in the low double digits [9][10][11] - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4, with Descente growing approximately 25-30% and Kolon growing around 55% [12][13] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of +10.7%, +5.5%, and +11.9% [17][18] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a 20-21X PE for 2026 [4][17]