国泰海通晨报-20260121

Macro Research - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is projected at 4.5%, showing a slight decline due to base effects, with a dual differentiation of supply exceeding demand and external demand outperforming internal demand [1][2] Real Estate Research - In 2025, the real estate sector is expected to experience a noticeable decline, aligning with earlier predictions that real estate companies will maintain positive cash flow and that the year will be risk-free [1][3] - The rental yield in first-tier cities has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025, while the "rental yield + CPI" has decreased from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2025, which is below mortgage rates but slightly above risk-free rates [5][32] - Second-tier cities are showing signs of price stabilization, with rental yields plus CPI improving from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025 [6][33] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of residents willing to buy homes has increased to approximately 16%, with a notable rise in the percentage of declining listing prices [7][34] - The real estate investment is expected to decrease by 17.2% year-on-year, while sales are projected to decline by 12.6%, leading to a positive cash flow for the industry [8] Military Industry Research - The launch cycle of the Long March 12 rocket has been shortened, indicating a potential acceleration in China's commercial space launch schedule [12][13] - In 2025, China is expected to achieve multiple breakthroughs in manned spaceflight, deep space exploration, and commercial space, with a record 92 launches throughout the year [14][27] - The commercial space sector is anticipated to become a core investment direction in the military industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with new rocket types expected to enhance launch capabilities [15][28]