HTSC·2026-01-21 02:50Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and terminal materials for new energy, electronic-grade phosphoric acid, and fine phosphates. The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid are enhancing the cost competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid, which may further boost the demand for thermal process phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus [5][6] - The supply of yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled in China due to high energy consumption and environmental safety concerns, with only limited new capacity being added through capacity replacement. The dual carbon policy may lead to the elimination of high-energy-consuming existing capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side [6][7] - The average operating rate of the domestic yellow phosphorus industry is projected to reach approximately 63% in 2025, the highest level since 2017, driven by favorable supply and demand dynamics. The price of yellow phosphorus is showing an upward trend, with a reference price of around 23,000 yuan per ton as of January 19, 2025, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the end of 2025 [7][5] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for yellow phosphorus is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 850,000 tons, while phosphoric acid consumption is expected to increase by 19% to 2.96 million tons. The five-year CAGR for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid is estimated at 5% and 12%, respectively [5][6] - The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid, which have reached nearly a decade high, are expected to drive the demand for thermal phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus. The cost advantage of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid is becoming more pronounced, especially considering the offset from by-products [5][6] Supply Constraints - The domestic yellow phosphorus capacity has decreased from 1.9 million tons in 2013 to 1.41 million tons in 2020, with a slight recovery to 1.58 million tons by the end of 2025, primarily due to capacity replacement. Only ten companies have a capacity of 50,000 tons or more, indicating a highly concentrated industry [6][39] - The dual carbon policy is expected to continue limiting new supply, with high-energy-consuming and inefficient capacities facing elimination pressure [6][7] Price Trends and Market Outlook - The average operating rate for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve, with a projected increase in monthly operating rates throughout 2025. The price of yellow phosphorus is anticipated to be supported by potential supply disruptions and increasing demand from new energy and electronic chemical sectors [7][5] - Companies with integrated operations in the yellow phosphorus value chain, including mining, yellow phosphorus production, and phosphoric acid, are expected to benefit significantly from the favorable market conditions [5][7]