大类资产配置专题：穿越AI叙事的全天候组合

Asset Allocation Insights - Prioritize equity assets in asset allocation, with commodities showing long-term value and bonds requiring strict control of long-end risks[2] - A-shares are entering a "slow bull" phase supported by policy and debt-equity ratio advantages, while US stocks benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains[2] - Commodity prices are supported by AI-driven resource pricing, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums"[2] Investment Strategies - Risk-seeking strategies should focus on "strong rate cuts + strong AI" combinations, emphasizing small and large-cap growth stocks and gold for high elastic returns[2] - Defensive strategies can adopt "strong rate cuts + weak AI" with long bonds, gold, and large-cap value stocks to secure stable returns and control drawdowns[2] - Low-volatility strategies may consider "weak rate cuts + weak AI" with cash and large-cap value stocks to lock in certain returns and avoid market volatility[2] Performance Metrics - Quadrant III (strong rate cuts + weak AI) shows the most stable performance with an annualized return of 16.67% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.48, with a maximum drawdown of -3.90%[11] - Quadrant I (strong rate cuts + strong AI) has a peak annual return of 40.15% in 2025, despite a -15% drawdown in 2023[11] - Quadrant II (weak rate cuts + strong AI) experienced a significant drawdown of -32.42% in 2023 but rebounded with a 29.35% return in 2025[11] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties in overseas monetary policy, geopolitical and trade disruptions, unexpected liquidity tightening, and potential tech valuation bubbles[54]