银泰证券鑫新闻：研究所日报

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" and focus on key areas to "strengthen" support, with a special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan for private investment[2] - A 500 billion yuan guarantee plan for private investment aims to guide banks in providing loans to small and micro enterprises[2] - The implementation of interest subsidies for loans in 14 key industrial chains is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.97%, with total trading volume at 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones down by 2.39%, 2.06%, and 1.76% respectively[3] - The 10-year government bond yield in China decreased by 1.66 basis points to 1.8260%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] - Gold prices rose above $4,762 per ounce, and silver prices peaked at $95 per ounce amid increased global risk aversion[2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors led gains with increases of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55% respectively[3] - The telecommunications, defense, and computer sectors saw declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94% respectively[3]