光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月21日）-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of the energy - chemical commodities market is volatile. Factors such as geopolitical issues (e.g., Trump's tariff threats over Greenland), weather conditions, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors are influencing the prices of various commodities [1][3][5]. - For specific commodities, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI February contract closed up $0.90 to $60.34 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent March contract closed up $0.98 to $64.92 per barrel, a 1.53% increase; SC2603 closed at 442.5 yuan per barrel, up 4 yuan per barrel, a 0.91% increase. Trump's tariff threats over Greenland and cold weather in the US are affecting the oil price. The market should pay attention to the persistence of cold weather and potential well - freezing phenomena, as well as the linkage between oil and gas prices [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.72% at 2512 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) closed down 0.23% at 3078 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient in January, and the downstream demand is supported. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, but the inflow of Venezuelan resources may have a negative impact. The absolute prices of FU and LU are likely to follow the oil price, with FU having higher volatility [3]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2602) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3139 yuan per ton. The concern about the raw material has eased slightly this week. The unrest in Iran is the main driver of asphalt price fluctuations. The demand will shrink with the arrival of rain and snow, and the market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation" [3]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5144 yuan per ton on Tuesday, up 2.27%; EG2605 closed at 3674 yuan per ton, down 2.16%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta are weak. Some polyester devices have been restarted or shut down for maintenance. PX supply has shrunk, and its price has support. TA is expected to follow the raw material price, and EG is expected to oscillate at a low level [3][5]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) closed down 125 yuan per ton to 15620 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) closed down 105 yuan per ton to 12550 yuan per ton. The overseas production season is coming to an end, tire companies are restocking, and the price of rubber is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [5]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2198 yuan per ton. The domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply is low. The MTO operating load has weakened. The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, and the market will focus on the restart plan of Ningbo Fude's device [5]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawstring PP was 6330 - 6500 yuan per ton. In January, the supply will decrease slightly, and the demand will weaken in the second half of the month. The inventory is expected to rise, and the polyolefin price will continue to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Tuesday, the price of PVC in East, North, and South China changed little. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand is slowing down, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data of various energy - chemical commodities, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes. For example, the spot price of crude oil (SC) was 432.10 yuan per barrel on January 20, the futures price was 442.60 yuan per barrel, and the basis was - 6.40 yuan per barrel [9]. 3.3 Market News - Trump threatened to impose additional 10% tariffs on imports from multiple European countries starting from February 1st, and 25% from June 1st if no agreement on Greenland is reached. These tariff threats may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth and a reduction in oil demand. The EU is formulating a plan to support Arctic security, and European leaders oppose Trump's tariff threats and will counter - attack if the tariffs are implemented [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis The report presents a series of charts to analyze the prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, inter - variety spreads, and production profits of various energy - chemical commodities, including the main contract prices, basis, spreads between different contracts, and spreads between different varieties of crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and other commodities [12][27][35][49][55]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of research experience in the futures derivatives market; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with rich experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [61][62][63][64].