商贸零售行业定期报告：全年社零+3.7%，稳健增长，提振政策显效

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - In December 2025, the total retail sales reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of +0.9%, which is below the consensus expectation; excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by +1.7%. For the entire year, the total retail sales amounted to 501,202 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of +3.7%, and +4.4% excluding automobiles [11][12] - In December, both limited above goods and catering consumption underperformed the market. Specifically, catering revenue was 5,738 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of +2.2%, while limited above goods retail was 39,398 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of +0.7% [11][12] - Essential consumption remained relatively stable, while tobacco and alcohol continued to show negative growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by +0.8%, with food prices contributing +0.24 percentage points to the CPI [11][12] - Optional consumption categories such as cosmetics and communication equipment showed strong growth. In December, cosmetics grew by +8.8% year-on-year, while communication equipment surged by +20.9% [11][12][18] - The real estate and automotive sectors remained cautious in consumer spending. In December, home appliances saw a year-on-year decline of -18.7%, while automotive retail fell by -14.0% [11][12][24] - Online retail sales for the year increased by +8.6%. In December, online retail sales reached 15,140 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of +4% [31] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - In December, the total retail sales reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of +0.9%, and for the entire year, it was 501,202 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of +3.7% [11][12] - Urban and rural retail sales in December grew by +0.7% and +1.7% respectively [12] Limited Above Data - In December, the limited above retail sales totaled 19,547 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of -1.9% [15] Classification Data - Essential consumption categories showed mixed results, with food and daily necessities growing, while tobacco and alcohol declined. Optional categories like cosmetics and communication equipment performed well [17][18] Online Retail Data - For the year, online retail sales reached 159,722 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of +8.6%. The physical online retail sales accounted for 29.5% of total goods retail [31][32]