供应端再起波澜，碳酸锂触及涨停

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price rose, with the main contract 2605 closing at 160,500 yuan/ton, up 8.99% from the previous settlement price. The price increase was driven by supply - side interference expectations in the lithium ore market and continued demand for export tax - rebate - driven downstream enterprises. The overall market trading was active, and some enterprises replenished their stocks. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 149,500 yuan/ton and closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price change of 8.99% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots, compared to 411,331 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 320 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,681 lots, a change of - 17 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 149,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 145,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a change of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price increase was due to the expected interference in the lithium ore supply side, the postponed resumption of production in Yichun's lithium mica mines, and the continued enthusiasm for export among downstream enterprises due to the export tax - rebate adjustment policy. Some enterprises replenished their stocks after the price correction, and the overall market trading was active [1]. Inventory Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction and a possible decline to the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. The export tax - rebate bonus will support demand before April, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].