现货普遍下跌，盘面弱势震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral; Mid - term: Downward for single - side trading [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 20, 2026, domestic LPG spot prices generally declined, and the overall market atmosphere was weak. Although the external market was relatively strong, the domestic market was restricted by multiple factors. PDH and other downstream chemical device profits were under pressure due to rising costs, and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppressed the PG market. Additionally, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbed the market, especially after the main contract switched to the 03 contract [1]. - In the medium term, the overseas supply growth trend will continue, with potential increases in supply from the Middle East and the United States. The global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the market's internal upward driving force is limited. However, if the Iranian geopolitical situation further escalates and causes LPG supply disruptions, it could lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the spot prices in different regions were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4410 yuan/ton; East China market, 4270 - 4370 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 5030 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4840 - 4970 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 608 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 601 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton, and butane was 4632 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 589 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and butane was 584 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4554 yuan/ton, unchanged, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy - Single - side trading: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; Mid - term downward. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]