工业硅震荡下行，多晶硅偏强上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with significant price support due to the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may boost short - term export rush demand but could overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, with downstream capacity accelerating to clear out [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,815 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.4)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 224,552 lots. On January 19, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 11,571 lots, a change of 288 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1] Consumption End - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon production cuts continued this week, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. However, the short - term photovoltaic export rush may boost industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon continued the peak - shifting emission reduction policy and self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and subsequent开工 was expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum expectations to the demand side [2] Supply End - On the same day, a large factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts, and the planned production in January was expected to decline significantly, which had a positive impact on industrial silicon prices. If the production cuts are effective, the supply side of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and inventory will shift from accumulation to reduction [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the polysilicon futures main contract 2605 oscillated upward, opening at 50,650 yuan/ton and closing at 50,700 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 43,632 (44,571 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 10,115 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.50 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3] - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 32.10 (with a month - on - month change of 6.29%), silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW (with a month - on - month change of - 5.53%), polysilicon weekly output was 21,500 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 9.66%), and silicon wafer output was 10.83GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.95%) [3] Product Prices - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]