部分厂家降价成交好转

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long - short spread trading on the low side [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Some regions are affected by snow and rain, with logistics disrupted and the market trading atmosphere cooling down. Spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers lower prices to attract orders and trading improves. Supply increases as some gas - based and technological - reform enterprises resume production in January. Demand from winter and spring fertilizers and off - season storage procurement are in progress. The resumption of compound fertilizer and melamine production boosts procurement. Both agricultural and industrial demand improve, leading to faster sales of urea enterprises and a reduction in factory and port inventories. International urea prices rise due to the Iranian situation, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas. Future attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 20, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1775 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1750 yuan/ton (0), 1750 yuan/ton (+0) in Shandong, and 1760 yuan/ton (+0) in Jiangsu. The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (- 3), - 25 yuan/ton (- 3) in Henan, and - 15 yuan/ton (- 3) in Jiangsu [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 20, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of January 20, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of January 20, 2026, the export profit was 860 yuan/ton (+9) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.08% (+2.91%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%). The pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (- 0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 20, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.61 million tons (- 3.61), and the inventory of port samples was 12.90 million tons (- 0.60) [1]