原油日报：地缘溢价持续扰动油市-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Geopolitical premiums continue to disrupt the oil market. Although Trump cancelled the plan to strike Iran, the tense situation in Iran has not been completely alleviated, and it will still have an emotional impact on oil prices in the short term, but the fundamentals have not been affected by geopolitics [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 90 cents to close at $60.34 a barrel, a gain of 1.51%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose 98 cents to close at $64.92 a barrel, a gain of 1.53%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.91% at 443 yuan per barrel [1] - On January 21 local time, the US military boarded and seized the seventh sanctioned oil tanker related to Venezuela. The US Southern Command said the tanker violated the isolation regulations imposed on sanctioned vessels by President Trump [1] - On January 16 local time, the US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. Under the new license arrangement, Chevron will be allowed to pay the Venezuelan government in cash instead of crude oil in kind, which will significantly enhance its business flexibility [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices rebounded again yesterday. The situation in Iran remains the focus. Although Trump cancelled the plan to strike Iran, the short - term impact on oil prices still exists, but it is only an emotional impact and has not affected the fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downward risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur - Upward risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions are caused by conflicts in the Middle East [3]