烧碱现货价格继续承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent rush - to - export sentiment provides some support to the spot. After April, the expected sharp decline in exports will further ease the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in downstream chlorine - containing product installations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,807 yuan/ton (+6); the East China basis is - 267 yuan/ton (-6); the South China basis is - 227 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (+0); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,855 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 35 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 662 yuan/ton (-29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 138 yuan/ton (+54); the PVC export profit is 10.3 US dollars/ton (+9.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (-1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.66% (+0.43%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 75.48% (-0.21%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.08% (+0.23%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,960 yuan/ton (-45); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 7 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 625 yuan/ton (-10); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda product in Shandong is 932 yuan/ton (-31); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 488.2 yuan/ton (-31.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 548.83 yuan/ton (-31.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 51.21 tons (+1.70); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.90 tons (-0.18); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.70% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 85.83% (+0.09%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and there was a rush - to - export situation before April, with export orders strengthening month - on - month. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak [3]. - On the supply side, domestic PVC supply is abundant, and the operation rate has rebounded. This week, Fujian Wanhua entered maintenance, and the supply is expected to decline slightly. Downstream operation rates have decreased, with the operation rate of profiles decreasing, and those of pipes and films remaining flat. There is an expectation of further decline in the future, and downstream buyers purchase on dips [3]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level year - on - year. On the cost side, the production profit of upstream chlor - alkali has decreased this week due to the weak spot price of caustic soda and is at a low level year - on - year. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in a loss state. PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Currently, the spot price of caustic soda is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts, and the spot quotation has been continuously lowered. The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is weak, and the inventory in Shandong has continued to increase [3]. - On the supply side, the overall operation rate is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is falling, and chlor - alkali enterprises have a stronger willingness to support the price of liquid chlorine. The prices of some chlorine - consuming products have strengthened. The export tax rebate for polyether polyol, a downstream product of propylene oxide, was cancelled on April 1st, leading to a rush - to - export by downstream enterprises. The demand was transmitted to propylene oxide and its upstream liquid chlorine, and the price of liquid chlorine is strong. There are few caustic soda enterprises planning maintenance [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have again lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 615 yuan/ton. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market's pessimism has led to insufficient motivation to purchase caustic soda. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Range - bound [4]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go long the V03 - 05 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity spread trading: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go short the SH03 - 05 spread on rallies [5]. - Inter - commodity spread trading: None [5].