EG价格快速下跌，但基差反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish allocation; EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread; long PTA short MEG [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG price dropped rapidly, but the basis rebounded. The intraday ethylene glycol market trended weakly, and polyester factories actively participated in price fixing at low levels. The spot basis in the market strengthened. The production profits of ethylene - made EG and coal - based syngas - made EG decreased. The inventory data from different sources showed different trends, and the main port was expected to continue accumulating inventory. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol was at a high level and continued to increase, and the overseas import pressure would ease after February. The demand was expected to weaken with the approaching Spring Festival. Overall, the market was expected to be weak in a volatile manner [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3674 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.16%), and the spot price in the East China market was 3595 yuan/ton (a change of - 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.18%). The spot basis in East China was - 112 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 77 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 4 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was - 927 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 79.5 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue accumulating inventory [2]