光大期货农产品日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn 2603 contract reduced positions and adjusted, with prices falling first and then rising, showing a weak - oscillating trend. The 2605 and 2607 contracts followed the adjustment. Northeast corn prices are stable, and the selling price in the sales area is firm. Downstream stocking is cautious, and the market has no concentrated restocking. The 5 - month contract price is first weak and then strong, and the basis strengthens [2]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Brazilian high - yield expectations offset the positive sentiment of US soybean bio - fuel demand. US soybean inspection data declined. In China, protein meal rose slightly, with rapeseed meal stronger than soybean meal. Soybean meal inventory decreased for the third consecutive week. The strategy is a double - selling strategy, with a bearish - oscillating view [2]. - Oils: BMD palm oil closed higher due to expected production cuts and strong export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% - 11.4% month - on - month. In China, palm oil rose by more than 1%, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil followed. The inventory pressure of domestic oils decreased marginally. The strategy is to sell put options, with a bullish - oscillating price trend [2]. - Eggs: Egg futures oscillated and adjusted. The spot price was stable. Short - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the spot price tends to be stable. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of funds and sentiment on the market [2]. - Pigs: Live hog futures continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the downstream was reluctant to accept high prices, leading to a decline in prices. Before the Spring Festival, peak - season demand may support prices. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see, and pay attention to the impact of farmers' sentiment on supply and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Soybean: In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons. As of January 16, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 4.26 million tons, and the estimated monthly crushing volume was about 8 million tons, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 900,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. The CNF price of US soybeans for February and March shipment is 473 US dollars/ton, 25 - 29 US dollars/ton higher than that of Brazilian soybeans [4]. - Steel: In December 2025, the crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The annual output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The steel output in December was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The annual output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [4]. - Grain and GDP: The national grain output in 2025 was 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons or 1.2% year - on - year. Corn output increased by 2.1%, and soybean output increased by 1.3%. The GDP in 2025 was 14.01879 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [5]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report shows the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs, but no specific data analysis is provided [7][9][10][14]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs, but no specific data analysis is provided [17][20][22][24].