有色商品日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with continuous losses in domestic refined copper spot imports. Macro - factors such as Japan's pre - election expectations and Trump's tariff threats led to market turmoil and increased risk - aversion. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic copper consumption entered the off - season, with stronger inventory accumulation than in the past two years. Although there is a need for adjustment, strong capital support makes a sharp decline unlikely. Traders should pay attention to the support at the LME 12000 US dollars/ounce level and overseas situations before the Spring Festival [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina prices declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Ore prices continued to fall, and inventories at manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate. Although the domestic downstream's Spring Festival stocking cycle has started, the overall recovery is limited, and the aluminum price may experience a phased correction in the short term but will still show anti - decline characteristics under high - level support. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking progress and inventory trends [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME and SHFE inventories decreased. Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota to support prices. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, the prices of products in each link of the industrial chain strengthen, and the first - grade nickel production has increased significantly, which may put pressure on the disk price. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate widely at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price fluctuations, macro - factors causing market turmoil, inventory changes, and consumption off - season leading to inventory accumulation. Capital support prevents a sharp decline [1]. - Aluminum: Weak overnight prices, falling alumina prices, widening spot discounts, ore price decline, inventory accumulation, and potential short - term price correction [1][2]. - Nickel: Falling overnight prices, inventory reduction, Indonesia's quota adjustment policy, and potential pressure on prices from increased production [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes in various copper products, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [3]. - Lead: Price changes in lead products, stable lead - concentrate prices and processing fees, and inventory changes [3]. - Aluminum: Price changes in aluminum products, raw material prices, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in import profit and loss [4]. - Nickel: Price changes in nickel - related products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in import profit and loss [4]. - Zinc: Price changes in zinc products, stable TC, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in import profit and loss [6]. - Tin: Price changes in tin products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [13][9][12]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [14][18][17]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [21][23][25]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [27][29][31]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series over the years [33][35][37]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper - concentrate index, copper - processing fees, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate over the years [40][42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and have made contributions in research and media communication [47][48].