Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove the lead price up, but it fell back with the general correction of non - ferrous metal prices in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On January 20, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,250 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,736 lots, a decrease of 34,227 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 74,190 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,275 yuan/ton and a low of 17,180 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, with the overall spot market being dull [2] Inventory - On January 20, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 19, the LME lead inventory was 225,575 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the price range of 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]
消费偏淡情况下，铅价难有发展潜力
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-21 05:04