下游加工费创历年新低

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [10] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [10] - Investment rating for arbitrage: Neutral [10] Group 2: Core Views - The increase in the absolute price of electrolytic aluminum has difficulty in downward transmission. The processing fee of aluminum rods has reached a record low, and the actual transaction is difficult. The downstream may enter the Spring Festival holiday in advance. The current inventory accumulation node is early and the speed is fast, putting pressure on prices. In the long - term, the macro factors are the main logic for the long - term price increase, but in the short - term, there is a need for price correction [7] - Alumina spot prices are still falling, and the supply pressure remains high. The cost support is weak, and there is a possibility of over - inventory in the later stage [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,680 yuan/ton, a change of - 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount is - 160 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [2] - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,560 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [2] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium and discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,020 yuan/ton, closed at 23,950 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,285 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,715 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 447,533 lots, and the position was 332,750 lots [3] Inventory - As of January 20, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 749,000 tons, a change of 13,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 139,951 tons, a change of - 1,524 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 483,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On January 20, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,615 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,565 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,755 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,730 yuan/ton, closed at 2,671 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 2.91%. The highest price was 2,732 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 554,847 lots, and the position was 502,994 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 20, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,800 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [6]